Re: 2020 us pres vaalit + jälkipelit

[Lusku]

CNN:n Valkoisten talon kirjeenvaihtaja, Fox Newsin gallupista:

[Hans Normaali]

Fox new...eiku siis fake-news!

[Salajulkku]

Käsitinkö väärin, vai mitä helkuttia tuolla The Fox Newsissä tapahtuu?

[Dame Cressida Dick]

Käsitinkö väärin, vai mitä helkuttia tuolla The Fox Newsissä tapahtuu?

En tiedä, mutta arvaisin, että siellä on laskettu Trump alkavan olla taakka katsojalukujen kannalta.

[Master of Speed]

Jeps, kyllä Foxin linjaa ohjaannee lähinnä omistajien markkina-analyysi. Siellä on laskettu että parempi saada Biden haukuttavaksi.

[Isä Ted]

Eikös noi Foxin pollit oo kuitenkin historiallisesti olleet suht päteviä ja luotettavia?

[Jussin villapaita]

Eikös noi Foxin pollit oo kuitenkin historiallisesti olleet suht päteviä ja luotettavia?

Juu.

[Mahdollisimman yleistäi]

Eikös noi Foxin pollit oo kuitenkin historiallisesti olleet suht päteviä ja luotettavia?

Juu.

Jeps. 538:n pollster ratingsseissä Foxin Beacon Research nappaa A- arvosanan ja historiallisesti sen ennustuksissa on jopa vähän puoltoa demokraattien suuntaan. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Trumppu on jo pitkään valitellut, että kovin epäreilua tämmöinen.

[Poistunut käyttäjä 143c336e]

michael brooks eli ^ ton pätkän juontaja on delannut.

Michael Brooks, political commentator and podcast host, dies at 36

Michael Brooks, a progressive political commentator and co-host of the "Majority Report" podcast, died of a "sudden medical condition," the show announced on Twitter Monday. He was 36.

"It is with a heavy heart that we announce the unexpected passing of Michael Brooks: a son, brother, friend, and true comrade to so many," Brooks' colleagues tweeted. The statement didn't offer details about the medical condition.

Brooks was a regular co-host of the Majority Report with Sam Seder, and in 2017 he launched "The Michael Brooks Show" on YouTube. Jacobin, the liberal magazine where Brooks was also a contributor, described the show as a "radicalizing force for huge numbers of mostly young people who were rightly contemptuous of the political establishment but only beginning to discover alternatives."

His unexpected death shocked many in the political journalism sphere, where Brooks was a rising star known for his "mischievous humor," as journalist Max Blumenthal recalled.



Seder, host of the Majority Report, remembered Brooks in a statement to Jacobin:

"I have worked with a lot of great broadcast hosts and some of the most talented comedians in the country, and what was unique about Michael was not just his intelligence and insight into politics ... but his ability to do genuinely brilliant political comedy. I need less than one hand to count how many people I've come across who had Michael's skill in crafting a funny impression or character that was not only a vehicle for political satire but satirical in its essence."

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Michael Brooks' age. He was 36, not 37.

e: jotain puhetta veritulpasta / aivoinfarktista mutta tiedä sitten.

[Jussin villapaita]

michael brooks eli ^ ton pätkän juontaja on delannut.

Michael Brooks, political commentator and podcast host, dies at 36

Michael Brooks, a progressive political commentator and co-host of the "Majority Report" podcast, died of a "sudden medical condition," the show announced on Twitter Monday. He was 36.

"It is with a heavy heart that we announce the unexpected passing of Michael Brooks: a son, brother, friend, and true comrade to so many," Brooks' colleagues tweeted. The statement didn't offer details about the medical condition.

Brooks was a regular co-host of the Majority Report with Sam Seder, and in 2017 he launched "The Michael Brooks Show" on YouTube. Jacobin, the liberal magazine where Brooks was also a contributor, described the show as a "radicalizing force for huge numbers of mostly young people who were rightly contemptuous of the political establishment but only beginning to discover alternatives."

His unexpected death shocked many in the political journalism sphere, where Brooks was a rising star known for his "mischievous humor," as journalist Max Blumenthal recalled.



Seder, host of the Majority Report, remembered Brooks in a statement to Jacobin:

"I have worked with a lot of great broadcast hosts and some of the most talented comedians in the country, and what was unique about Michael was not just his intelligence and insight into politics ... but his ability to do genuinely brilliant political comedy. I need less than one hand to count how many people I've come across who had Michael's skill in crafting a funny impression or character that was not only a vehicle for political satire but satirical in its essence."

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Michael Brooks' age. He was 36, not 37.

e: jotain puhetta veritulpasta / aivoinfarktista mutta tiedä sitten.

Juuh. Tykkäsin tyypistä kovasti ja aina silloin tällöin noita sen jorinoita tännekin linkkaillut. Välillä vähän turhan teoreettista meikäläisen makuun ja kuten noilla kaikilla tubelaisilla se päivänpoliittinen sisältö on toisaalta herkästi aika diibaa, mutta joka tapauksessa usein varsin mielenkiintoista analyysia ja osasi vieläpä olla hauska. Olin aika varma, että kaverista tulee vielä tosi iso nimi.

Jonkinlainen veritulppa tms. kaulassa ja lähti vissiin ihan suorilta jaloin.

[Dame Cressida Dick]

Varapresidenttivalontaveikkailu kuumenee. Koska en tiiä taaskaan mistään mitään, veikkaan Tammy Duckworthia.

[Boromir]

michael brooks eli ^ ton pätkän juontaja on delannut.

Michael Brooks, political commentator and podcast host, dies at 36

Michael Brooks, a progressive political commentator and co-host of the "Majority Report" podcast, died of a "sudden medical condition," the show announced on Twitter Monday. He was 36.

"It is with a heavy heart that we announce the unexpected passing of Michael Brooks: a son, brother, friend, and true comrade to so many," Brooks' colleagues tweeted. The statement didn't offer details about the medical condition.

Brooks was a regular co-host of the Majority Report with Sam Seder, and in 2017 he launched "The Michael Brooks Show" on YouTube. Jacobin, the liberal magazine where Brooks was also a contributor, described the show as a "radicalizing force for huge numbers of mostly young people who were rightly contemptuous of the political establishment but only beginning to discover alternatives."

His unexpected death shocked many in the political journalism sphere, where Brooks was a rising star known for his "mischievous humor," as journalist Max Blumenthal recalled.



Seder, host of the Majority Report, remembered Brooks in a statement to Jacobin:

"I have worked with a lot of great broadcast hosts and some of the most talented comedians in the country, and what was unique about Michael was not just his intelligence and insight into politics ... but his ability to do genuinely brilliant political comedy. I need less than one hand to count how many people I've come across who had Michael's skill in crafting a funny impression or character that was not only a vehicle for political satire but satirical in its essence."

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Michael Brooks' age. He was 36, not 37.

e: jotain puhetta veritulpasta / aivoinfarktista mutta tiedä sitten.

Juuh. Tykkäsin tyypistä kovasti ja aina silloin tällöin noita sen jorinoita tännekin linkkaillut. Välillä vähän turhan teoreettista meikäläisen makuun ja kuten noilla kaikilla tubelaisilla se päivänpoliittinen sisältö on toisaalta herkästi aika diibaa, mutta joka tapauksessa usein varsin mielenkiintoista analyysia ja osasi vieläpä olla hauska. Olin aika varma, että kaverista tulee vielä tosi iso nimi.

Jonkinlainen veritulppa tms. kaulassa ja lähti vissiin ihan suorilta jaloin.

¨

Yks parhaista youtube vasuri hepuista ja seurasin melkein päivittäin videoita, aika shokkina tuli kyllä poislähtö. Eikun Rest In Power vaan toveri Brooksille

[kaikkien alojen asiantuntija]

michael brooks eli ^ ton pätkän juontaja on delannut.

Michael Brooks, political commentator and podcast host, dies at 36

Michael Brooks, a progressive political commentator and co-host of the "Majority Report" podcast, died of a "sudden medical condition," the show announced on Twitter Monday. He was 36.

"It is with a heavy heart that we announce the unexpected passing of Michael Brooks: a son, brother, friend, and true comrade to so many," Brooks' colleagues tweeted. The statement didn't offer details about the medical condition.

Brooks was a regular co-host of the Majority Report with Sam Seder, and in 2017 he launched "The Michael Brooks Show" on YouTube. Jacobin, the liberal magazine where Brooks was also a contributor, described the show as a "radicalizing force for huge numbers of mostly young people who were rightly contemptuous of the political establishment but only beginning to discover alternatives."

His unexpected death shocked many in the political journalism sphere, where Brooks was a rising star known for his "mischievous humor," as journalist Max Blumenthal recalled.



Seder, host of the Majority Report, remembered Brooks in a statement to Jacobin:

"I have worked with a lot of great broadcast hosts and some of the most talented comedians in the country, and what was unique about Michael was not just his intelligence and insight into politics ... but his ability to do genuinely brilliant political comedy. I need less than one hand to count how many people I've come across who had Michael's skill in crafting a funny impression or character that was not only a vehicle for political satire but satirical in its essence."

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated Michael Brooks' age. He was 36, not 37.

e: jotain puhetta veritulpasta / aivoinfarktista mutta tiedä sitten.

Kai vissiin sitten tuollapäin maailmaa tehdään poliittista väkivaltaa paremmin kuin Keski-Suomessa.
Eli oliko muka ihan nyt vaan sattumaa - tai en mää tiiä.

[Ingmar Bergmanin kuolema]

Laitetaas täytteeksi vähän gallup-keskiarvoa vaa'ankieliosavaltioista. Hyvältä näyttää Bidenin kannalta, sillä esimerkiksi kolmen ensimmäisen kääntäminen Trumpilta riittäisi jo voittoon.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... nd-states/

Michigan 48,0-40,3 Biden +7,7
Pennsylvania 49,4-42,8 Biden +6,6
Wisconsin 47,8-41,8 Biden +6,0
Florida 49,4-43,6 Biden +5,8
North Carolina 47,3-45,3 Biden +2,0
Arizona 47,8-45,0 Biden +2,8

Kun noita tämänhetkisiä statseja katsoi, niin Bidenilla on realistiset mahdollisuudet keikauttaa puolelleen kahdeksan suurinta Trumpin viimeksi viemää osavaltiota ja muutama muu pienempi.

[38911 BASIC BYTES FREE]

Laitetaas täytteeksi vähän gallup-keskiarvoa vaa'ankieliosavaltioista. Hyvältä näyttää Bidenin kannalta, sillä esimerkiksi kolmen ensimmäisen kääntäminen Trumpilta riittäisi jo voittoon.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elect ... nd-states/

Michigan 48,0-40,3 Biden +7,7
Pennsylvania 49,4-42,8 Biden +6,6
Wisconsin 47,8-41,8 Biden +6,0
Florida 49,4-43,6 Biden +5,8
North Carolina 47,3-45,3 Biden +2,0
Arizona 47,8-45,0 Biden +2,8

Kun noita tämänhetkisiä statseja katsoi, niin Bidenilla on realistiset mahdollisuudet keikauttaa puolelleen kahdeksan suurinta Trumpin viimeksi viemää osavaltiota ja muutama muu pienempi.

En laske mitään Floridan varaan kun siellä on toi paikallinen demografia viritetty tuottamaan 50-50 -tuloksia, tosin ehkä Trump on sen verran suututtanut liikkuvat äänestäjät vähän kaikkialla että siellä saatetaan äänestää Trumpia vastaan jopa ihan äänestäjätasolla split ticketinä (mikä on perinteisesti melko harvinaista) enemmän kuin yleensä.

Mutjoo, tässä on mun nähdäkseni kolme suht koht tasavahvaa skenaariota siitä, miten vaaleissa voi käydä:

- Biden voittaa julmetulla täysin vastaansanomattomalla maanvyöryllä
- Biden voittaa niukasti
- Trump voittaa niukasti (ja häviää jälleen popular voten)