WSJ recreates events leading up to
invasion based on interviews with 30 policymakers.
hoped to integrate Putin into post-Cold War order
when that failed, US&Allies didn't return to containment
led the EU’s big bet on peace through commerce ->energy dependence
NATO said in 2008 that Ukraine & Georgia would one day join but never followed up
West had limited reaction to Russia's invasions of Georgia & Ukraine, encouraging Putin
Russia saw Orange Revolution as a threat, in 2005 launched campaign to contest perceived US influence
To
, Putin told demise of USSR was greatest geopolitical tragedy
to W Europe, he said "Cold War is over" & presented himself as a democrat, opened pathways for lucrative trade,made friends with Schröder & Berlusconi
2007: Putin grew more aggressive towards West
2008: at Bucharest summit, Bush pushed to give Ukraine requested NATO membership plan; Berlin&Paris were against
Merkel said NATO invite for Ukraine & Georgia would provoke Putin and that countries would bring no benefit to NATO
"Compromise" resolution left
in gray zone
Next day, Putin described
as "made-up country," questioned transfer of Crimea
4 months later, he invaded Georgia
Putin said 2011 Russian anti-election fraud protests were incited by US embassy, started crackdown on opposition
Putin's fears grew with Arab Spring
“[Putin's] great anxiety was that Ukraine could become economically and politically successful and that the Russians would eventually ask themselves ‘Why are our brothers doing so well, while our situation remains dire?’” - advisor to Merkel
Pro-W
President Yushchenko lost elections in 2010, successor Yanukovych could not balance declared "friendship with both EU & Russia" course
called EU-Ukraine trade deal "major threat to economy,"
suspended talks on deal citing
pressure
Euromaidan Revolution
Feb 2014:
FSB General Sergei Beseda, dispatched to Kyiv to quell Euromaidan, advises Yanukovych to deploy army & crush protests. Instead, Yanukovych flees Kyiv
Putin sees Euromaidan as a US coup, in all-night meeting decides to annex Crimea
Invasion of Donbas
Moscow sought to regain lost political leverage in Ukraine through Minsk Agreements that Ukraine signed under duress
Low-intensity war until 2022
In 2014, Merkel realized Putin would never reconciliate with West yetcontinued to support commercial cooperation with Russia
US Obama administr & some NATO allies started program to train
Army, but with limited support to not provoke
Trump expanded aid to Javelins but blackmailed Zelenskyy to dig up dirt on Biden
Russia tried to stop US military aid by hinting at tradeoff with Venezuela
2019: Zelenskyy wins presidency, rejects Russian interpretation of Minsk. Observers thought Putin loathed new
President
Macron seeks rapprochement with Putin
2021: Biden sets goal for "stable, predictable relationship with Russia" as he focused on China
Sept'21: US gives Ukraine $60mn in limited military, non-offensive support
27 Oct'21: US Intel Director warns Russia could invade by end of Jan'22
Nov'21: US prepares $200 mn package but puts it on hold, calculating it wouldn't deter Putin & could provoke him
DefSec Austin opted for cautious approach, with paramount goal to avoid confrontation btw
&
Dec'21:
issues NATO&US ultimatum to revise post-Cold War security order
27 Dec'21: Biden allows more arms shipments to
9 Jan'22:
General Mingus attempts to dissuade Russia from invading, saying it would be a quagmire, to no reaction
European leaders don't believe
Intel re: invasion
mid-Jan'22: CIA director Burns warns Zelenskyy in Kyiv that
would attempt to seize Hostomel airfield
Macron&Scholtz make last attempts to talk Putin out of invading
. Putin complains of
"historical grievances," Scholtz warns of severe sanctions
19 Feb'22: Scholtz tells Zelenskyy
should renounce NATO aspirations & declare neutrality as part of W-Russia security deal
invasion based on interviews with 30 policymakers.
hoped to integrate Putin into post-Cold War order
led the EU’s big bet on peace through commerce ->energy dependence
in gray zone