After Brexit: why there has been no “domino effect” in Europe
Eurosceptic politicians are now more likely to look to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary for inspiration than to the UK.
Almost five years on from the Brexit referendum, and three months on from the end of the transition period on 1 January 2021, full-fat euroscepticism seems to have quietened in mainland Europe. The so-called domino effect that some British politicians predicted Brexit would trigger hasn't happened.
Matteo Salvini, the firebrand leader of Italy’s right-wing Lega party, used to flirt with the idea of leaving the EU and the euro. Today, he speaks of needing to be in the room while decisions on how to spend money from the EU recovery fund are made. Members of his party serve in a cabinet led by Mario Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank credited with saving the euro. Marine Le Pen, who used to cite Brexit as an inspiration for France, is today notably quieter about leaving the EU.
Has the chaos of the five years since the Brexit vote, with its endless negotiations and renegotiations and parliamentary intrigue, put off European electorates from following the UK? Or is the UK’s coronavirus vaccine success viewed as early evidence of the dividend countries that leave the EU can expect?
At present, the former view is dominant, although how the UK fares in future could change the equation.
The majority of polling shows that most electorates overwhelmingly support European integration. Of those polled in EU member states in 2020, 66 per cent had a favourable view of the EU (although the polling was conducted before the bloc’s beleaguered vaccination campaign began).Spoiler:
Accordingly, many eurosceptics are coming to the view that the EU should be moulded into a looser grouping amenable to right-wing objectives, rather than the champion of liberal values most European federalists believe it should be. Some I spoke to imagine refashioning the bloc into a Gaullist “Europe of Nations” – jargon for an alliance of member states governed by a weaker central authority. Others want the clock turned back to the pre-Maastricht era, a reference to the European treaty that created the euro.
“We can change [the EU] from within,” said Rivière. “Le Pen does not believe in leaving the EU.”The future fortunes of euroscepticism will in part depend on how the UK performs now that it is out of the EU. All the far-right politicians I spoke to cited the UK’s coronavirus vaccine roll-out, which is going much faster than the EU’s, as proof of what countries can achieve uncoupled from Brussels. (None acknowledged, however, that the UK’s key decision to procure vaccines independently from Brussels was taken while the UK was still subject to EU law and thus could have been replicated by member states.)Spoiler:
“[The UK’s vaccine success] reminds us that the nation state is still the political model that most efficiently guarantees the security and wellbeing of its citizens,” Laura Huhtasaari, a Finnish right-wing MEP who advocates leaving the EU, said in an email.
Yet whether the UK’s bet to leave the bloc will pay off in the long term remains to be seen. Most economists believe that Britons will be poorer due to the hard Brexit negotiated by Boris Johnson late last year. Some projections estimate that Brexit will cost the UK several percentage points in economic growth over the next decade, making the UK a poorer country than could otherwise be expected and perhaps weakening the argument for other countries to follow suit.Spoiler:
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Re: laura "huhtis 'ctrl+c ctrl+v'" huhtasaaaren twittersekoiluthread
Törkeitä Tervon henkilöön meneviä kommentteja tossa ketjussa täynnä ja Looran twitterkaverit tykittelee muna pystyssä
Seppokin on näköjään vielä hihhuli kuten Loora joten voivat myös uskonasioista jutella:
Seppokin on näköjään vielä hihhuli kuten Loora joten voivat myös uskonasioista jutella:
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***Come on you Spurs!***
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Eilen Huhtasaari kaivoi Tervon 31.3.2020 lähetetyn twiitin kommentoitavaksi. Nyt j mm harmittaa vähän tuoreempi asia, eli että Biden on pressa eikä aiheuta päivittäisiä skandaaleja ja mediakohua.
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Huhtis osaa linkata, hei!
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Koittaako loora tässä nyt joukkoistaa itselleen närkästymisen aihetta vaiko?
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